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SentinelPay

Early accessProfit decision intelligence for Shopify

Your Shopify profit analyst, always watching.

SentinelPay monitors your store's profitability, finds what's hurting your margins, explains why it's happening, and tells you what to fix next — without you having to read another chart.

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profit signals watched
7profit signals watched
to set up
< 3 minto set up
on every finding
$ impacton every finding
Watching 7 profit signals
SentinelPay
Illustrative demo
Contribution profitLast 30 days
$0.0012.4%

vs. previous 30 days

Revenue$32,840
Contribution margin25.6%
2 things need attentionBy impact
  • Returns increased 31%Product X accounts for 63% of the change
    −$840
  • Product X margin droppedDown 8 points versus last period
    −$520
Today's priority
Review Product X return reasons

Potential impact $1,360 / month

Potential to recover+$1,360 /mo
Data coverage
84%
Monitoring
  • Unexpected profit drops
  • Contribution margin deterioration
  • Low-margin products
  • High-return products
  • Discount leakage
  • Unprofitable ad campaigns
  • Unprofitable orders
  • Shipping cost increases
  • Abnormal refund activity
  • COGS changes by variant

The profit blind spot

Your store can grow while your profit gets worse.

Revenue tells you how much came in. It says nothing about which products, promotions, returns or campaigns took it back out again.

  • 01

    Which products are actually profitable after returns and discounts?

  • 02

    Which promotions are quietly destroying contribution margin?

  • 03

    Which campaigns generate revenue that survives its own cost?

  • 04

    Why did profit fall this week when revenue went up?

A $184,230 month and a $37,650 month can be the same month. The gap is where every profit decision lives.

Illustrative store

Where the revenue goes

30 days
Revenue$184,230
Product costs (COGS)−$72,400
Discounts−$11,860
Refunds & returns−$8,970
Shipping & fulfilment−$11,230
Payment fees−$6,310
Advertising−$35,810
Contribution profit$37,650

Contribution profit reflects the costs you connect or provide. Missing inputs are always labelled.

The difference

Most dashboards tell you what happened.

SentinelPay tells you what deserves attention.

Traditional analyticsEverything looks fine
Revenue
$184,230↑ 8.1%
Orders
2,486↑ 6.4%
ROAS
3.2×↑ 0.3
Sessions
94,210↑ 11%

Four green numbers. No indication that profit fell 12% this month, or what to do about it.

SentinelPayNeeds attention
What changedContribution profit is down 12%
Why

Returns rose 31% over the period. Product X accounts for 63% of the increase, concentrated in one variant.

Product X · 63%Other products · 37%
Estimated impact−$1,360/ month
Investigate next

Review Product X return reasons

Illustrative figures throughout this page demonstrate the product. They are not merchant results.

What it watches

Every lever of profit, under watch.

SentinelPay runs deterministic profit calculations across your orders, costs and campaigns, then watches each lever for the changes that cost you money.

Profit monitoring

Catch the drop the day it starts.

Contribution profit is recalculated continuously. When it breaks its normal range, you hear about it — with the cause attached.

Change detected−12.4%
Alerts

Ranked, not noisy

Only changes with a meaningful dollar impact reach you.

  • Discount leakage−$2,140
  • Product X margin−$1,240
  • Return spike−$840
Products

True product margin

After returns, discounts and fulfilment — not just price minus cost.

  • Product W38%
  • Product Z27%
  • Product Y19%
  • Product X9%
Returns

Return spikes, traced

Pinned to the product and variant responsible.

Discounts

Discount leakage

See how much revenue arrives already marked down.

42%discounted
  • Full price58%
  • One discount24%
  • Stacked18%
Advertising

ROAS isn't profit

Contribution after ad spend, per campaign — so a 3× ROAS on a thin product can't hide.

  • Meta — prospect3.1× ROAS
  • Google Shopping2.7× ROAS
  • Campaign X1.4× ROAS
Fulfilment

Shipping cost creep

Flags when cost per order overtakes what you charge for shipping.

All visuals show illustrative sample data.

The product

One place to understand your profit.

Move from the headline number to the problem, the calculation behind it, and the next step — without losing the thread.

Overview

Profit at a glance

Contribution profit, margin and open issues for the selected period.

Last 30 days
MetricValueChange
Contribution profit$37,650+4.2%
Contribution margin20.4%−1.8 pts
Revenue$184,230+8.1%
Open profit issues042 high impact

Interactive preview · sample data only

Profit intelligence

Every problem gets a financial impact.

Detection is only useful if you know what it costs. Each finding carries an estimated monthly figure, so you rank attention by money — not by curiosity.

Product margin

Margin deterioration

Product X contribution margin moved from 18% to 9% across the last two periods.

Estimated impact−$1,240/ month
Returns

Return rate increase

Returns on Product Y rose 31%, concentrated in a single variant.

Estimated impact−$840/ month
Discounts

Discount leakage

Stacked promotions are reducing contribution margin on already thin products.

Estimated impact−$2,140/ month
Advertising

Unprofitable ad spend

Campaign X grew revenue while contribution profit after ad spend declined.

Estimated impact−$920/ month
Fulfilment

Shipping cost increase

Fulfilment cost per order on Product Z increased against a flat shipping charge.

Estimated impact−$480/ month

Sample scenarios. Real impact estimates depend on the cost data connected to your store.

The daily shortlist

Know what to fix first.

Not every problem is worth your morning. SentinelPay ranks open issues by estimated financial impact, so the top of the list is always the most expensive thing happening to your store.

Less time asking “what am I looking at?”
More time deciding “what should we do?”
Get early access
Today's prioritiesRanked by impact
  1. 01
    Discount leakagePromotions are reducing contribution margin across 6 SKUs
    −$2,140/ moHigh impact
  2. 02
    Product X margin declineMargin fell from 18% to 9% over two periods
    −$1,240/ moHigh impact
  3. 03
    Return spikeReturns up 31%, concentrated in one variant
    −$840/ moMedium
  4. 04
    Shipping cost increaseFulfilment cost per order rose on Product Z
    −$480/ moMedium

Ordered by money at stake, not by chart volume.

How we calculated this84% data coverage
Estimated contribution profit$8,420.00Illustrative 30-day period
Revenue
Shopify — Connected
Product costs (COGS)
Imported CSV — Provided
Shipping
Shopify — Connected
Payment fees
Shopify Payments — Connected
Refunds & returns
Shopify — Connected
Ad spend
Meta Ads — Connected
Fixed operating costs
Not provided — Missing
VAT treatment
Estimated — Estimated

Fixed costs and VAT are not included in this figure because they haven't been provided.

Built for trust

Know how the number was calculated.

A profit figure is only useful if you can take it apart. See which inputs came from Shopify, which you supplied, which are estimated, and which are still missing — before you act on it.

  • Traceable inputs

    Every figure names the source it came from.

  • Visible gaps

    A cost you haven't supplied is shown as missing, never guessed.

  • Honest confidence

    Coverage is stated so you can judge the number in context.

Financial figures come from deterministic calculations on your data. AI is used only to explain findings that already exist — it never invents a number.

From insight to action

Don't just find the problem. Know what to investigate next.

Each finding comes with the reasoning behind it, the estimated opportunity if you address it, and a short list of practical next steps — the way a financial analyst would hand it to you.

Recommendations help you investigate. Every decision about your store stays yours.

Profit opportunity01 / 04
Product X

Strong sales. Thin profit.

Revenue$18,400
Contribution profit$320
What's happening
  • 31% average discount rate across the period
  • 18% return rate, concentrated in one variant
  • Fulfilment cost per order up 12%
  • Ad efficiency declining against a flat price
Recommended next steps
  1. 01Review the discount rules applied to this product
  2. 02Investigate the return reasons on the affected variant
  3. 03Re-check shipping rates against current fulfilment cost
Potential opportunity+$1,240/ mo
Data coverage84%

How it works

From connected data to a clear decision.

Three steps, and about three minutes of setup.

  1. STEP 01

    Connect

    Connect your Shopify store and add the cost inputs you already track — COGS, shipping assumptions, ad spend.

  2. STEP 02

    SentinelPay watches

    Deterministic profit calculations run continuously, and the detection engine flags meaningful changes as they appear.

  3. STEP 03

    Take action

    Get a short ranked list: what changed, why, what it costs per month, and what to investigate first.

Live Shopify connection opens with early access. Today the site shows a guided sample store.

Built for operators

For the people responsible for profit.

Wherever you sit in the business, the job is the same: turn a financial signal into the next sensible move.

Founders

Know whether this month's growth actually produced more profit than last month's.

Ecommerce operators

Catch margin problems while they cost hundreds, not after they have cost thousands.

Growth teams

See which campaigns generate revenue that survives its own cost of acquisition.

Shopify agencies

Monitor profitability across client stores and bring findings to the next review.

Reference

What SentinelPay measures, in plain language.

The vocabulary behind every figure on this page.

Shopify profit analytics
Analysis of what a store actually keeps after costs, rather than what it collected at checkout. SentinelPay calculates it per order, per product and per campaign from your Shopify data plus the costs you supply.
Contribution profit & margin
Revenue minus variable costs: COGS, discounts, refunds, shipping, payment fees and ad spend. It is the figure that moves when you change a price or a promotion, which makes it the right basis for profit tracking.
Shopify COGS tracking
Cost of goods sold per variant, imported from Shopify, a spreadsheet or your accounting system. Without accurate COGS, product profitability is guesswork — so missing costs are flagged rather than estimated away.
Product profitability
True profit by product after its own returns, discounts and fulfilment cost. Best sellers and most profitable products are frequently not the same list.
ROAS vs. profitability
Return on ad spend measures revenue against ad cost. Profitability measures what survives after COGS, shipping, fees and returns. A 3× ROAS campaign can still lose money on a thin-margin product.
Ecommerce profit monitoring
Continuous watching rather than periodic reporting. Changes in margin, returns, discounts and fulfilment cost are detected as they happen and ranked by estimated monthly impact.

Common questions

A little more clarity.

Something we haven't answered? Email us.

Contribution profit is revenue minus the variable costs tied to each order: product cost (COGS), discounts, refunds and returns, shipping and fulfilment, payment fees, and advertising. It is the number that moves when you change a price, a promotion or a campaign, which makes it the right metric for day-to-day profit decisions. Net profit adds fixed overhead that rarely explains a sudden change.

Early access

Find your biggest profit problem.

SentinelPay is opening to a first group of Shopify merchants. Leave your email and we'll tell you the moment live store analysis is available.

  • Be first in line when live Shopify connection opens
  • Early access pricing for the first merchants on board
  • No credit card, no commitment, unsubscribe anytime
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